Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leicester · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bromley 0-4 Leicester
Original prediction
Leicester
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.32 | 21.6% | 23.4% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 23.2% | 21.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.69 | 55.2% | 54.7% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Leicester
Probability
54.7%
Model confidence
54.7%
Leicester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BromleyLLLLW
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LeicesterWLLWD
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
BromleyLeicester
33.3Attack44.4
22.2Defence44.4
29.6Form44.4
31.4Power46.6
1.17xG1.91