Briton Ferryvs
Colwyn Bay
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 10/3/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Colwyn Bay · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 0-3 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Briton Ferry 1-0 Colwyn Bay
Original prediction
Colwyn Bay
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.46 | 20.2% | 16.4% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 23.9% | 20.9% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 55.9% | 62.7% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–310%
Predicted outcome
Colwyn Bay
Probability
62.7%
Model confidence
62.7%
Colwyn Bay has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80