Britovs
Vitória de Sernache
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vitória de Sernache · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brito 0-1 Vitória de Sernache
Original prediction
Vitória de Sernache
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.08 | 29.3% | 36.1% | 6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.1% | 27.1% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 42.6% | 36.8% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Vitória de Sernache
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Vitória de Sernache has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20