Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chaves II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brito 0-4 Chaves II
Original prediction
Chaves II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.47 | 36.8% | 30.0% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.2% | 28.2% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 34.1% | 41.8% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Chaves II
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Chaves II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BritoWLWLL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Chaves IIWWWLL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BritoChaves II
33.3Attack41.7
33.3Defence66.7
25.0Form75.0
34.2Power64.5
0.93xG1.39