World · CONCACAF Nations League · 9/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
British Virgin Islands · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
British Virgin Islands 0-3 Turks and Caicos Islands
Original prediction
British Virgin Islands
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.61 | 34.9% | 42.0% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.1% | 25.8% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 40.0% | 32.1% | -7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
British Virgin Islands
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
British Virgin Islands has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20