British Virgin Islandsvs
Montserrat
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/1/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montserrat · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
British Virgin Islands 0-2 Montserrat
Original prediction
Montserrat
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 17.01 | 5.4% | 20.5% | 15.1 pts |
| Draw | 7.51 | 12.3% | 21.5% | 9.2 pts |
| Away | 1.12 | 82.3% | 58.0% | -24.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Montserrat
Probability
58.0%
Model confidence
58.0%
Montserrat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80