Bristol City Wvs
Newcastle United W
COMPLETEDEngland · Women's Championship · 9/12/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle United W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bristol City W 0-1 Newcastle United W
Original prediction
Newcastle United W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.01 | 29.9% | 30.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.3% | 28.4% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 43.9% | 40.8% | -3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle United W
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Newcastle United W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00