Brighton Wvs
Charlton Athletic W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 10/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brighton W 5-1 Charlton Athletic W
Original prediction
Brighton W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 75.6% | 55.3% | -20.3 pts |
| Draw | 6.02 | 15.2% | 22.8% | 7.6 pts |
| Away | 9.87 | 9.3% | 21.9% | 12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Brighton W
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
Brighton W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 1 · GA 13 · avg 0.20/2.60