Brighton Wvs
Aston Villa W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brighton W 1-1 Aston Villa W
Original prediction
Brighton W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 54.1% | 46.0% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.8% | 25.8% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.14 | 22.1% | 28.2% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.84 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Brighton W
Probability
46.0%
Model confidence
46.0%
Brighton W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40