Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brighton 4-0 Tromso
Original prediction
Brighton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 81.6% | 42.9% | -38.7 pts |
| Draw | 7.52 | 12.4% | 23.8% | 11.4 pts |
| Away | 15.47 | 6.0% | 33.3% | 27.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-38.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Brighton
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Brighton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BrightonWDWWW
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
TromsoDLWWW
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BrightonTromso
0.0Attack77.8
100.0Defence88.9
33.3Form77.8
45.3Power78.5
1.15xG1.63