Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Brighton are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Marseille are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Brighton hold a 4.6-point power-rating edge (60.0 v 55.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Brighton holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Brighton
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Brighton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20