Brightonvs
Kauno Žalgiris
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa Conference League · 10/15/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brighton 4-0 Kauno Žalgiris
Original prediction
Brighton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.02 | 93.5% | 54.4% | -39.1 pts |
| Draw | 21.05 | 4.5% | 22.8% | 18.2 pts |
| Away | 49.35 | 1.9% | 22.8% | 20.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-39.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Brighton
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Brighton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80