Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Brighton are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDDLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Ajax are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Brighton hold a 16.1-point power-rating edge (60.0 v 43.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.7% in the UEFA Europa League, while Brighton holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Brighton
Probability
50.7%
Model confidence
50.7%
Brighton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80