Brighton U21vs
AFC Bournemouth U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 10/18/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Bournemouth U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brighton U21 3-3 AFC Bournemouth U21
Original prediction
AFC Bournemouth U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 55.9% | 38.1% | -17.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.23 | 21.2% | 22.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.93 | 22.9% | 39.4% | 16.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.23 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
AFC Bournemouth U21
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
AFC Bournemouth U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20