1. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion
Friday, 31 July 202618:30Updated today
Brühl

Brühl

Home
D
vs
18:30
Young Boys II

Young Boys II

Away
D
GoalVio prediction
60% confidence
Brühl(60%)
Most likely exact score3-1
Win probability
Brühl
60%
Draw
23%
Young Boys II
17%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Brühl
34
Young Boys II
34
Defence
Brühl
66
Young Boys II
66
Momentum
Brühl
33
Young Boys II
33
Danger (xG)
Brühl
0.90
Young Boys II
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 2.91 xG for Brühl and 1.26 xG for Young Boys II — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Brühl holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's meaningful attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 4.17 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.

xG for (Brühl)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Young Boys II)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Brühl)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Young Boys II)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
BrühlBrühl
DW
Young Boys IIYoung Boys II
D

Probability breakdown

60% confidence
Brühl60%
Draw23%
Young Boys II17%

Brühl leads with 60% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Brühl Backed to Win — Model Projects 3-1

Brühl host Young Boys II in 1. Liga Promotion. Brühl have recorded LWLDLW in recent matches while Young Boys II arrive with a run of DLLLLD. These sides have met 10 times recently, averaging 3.6 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.91 expected goals for Brühl against 1.26 for Young Boys II — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Brühl's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 57% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 📈 Recent Form Brühl arrive in better recent form — 2 wins from 10 matches (LWLDLW) against Young Boys II's 0. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.

Why GoalVio backs this

Brühl are generating a dominant xG advantage — 2.91 projected against 1.26 for Young Boys II. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.65 is the clearest signal in the model that Brühl are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The head-to-head record shows Young Boys II have won 4 of the last 10 meetings — a competitive history that suggests Brühl's statistical advantage does not always translate into results against this specific opponent.

Risk factors

  • Brühl have been conceding 1.71 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • These sides have drawn 4 of their last 10 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.

Recent form

Brühl

Brühl

D
@ FC Winterthur
14 Jul 2026
11
W
vs Zürich II
16 May 2026
31
Young Boys II

Young Boys II

D
@ Cham
16 May 2026
11

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Brühl vs Young Boys II?

GoalVio's model predicts Brühl to win with 60% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Brühl vs Young Boys II?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 3-1.

Will both teams score in Brühl vs Young Boys II?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brühl vs Young Boys II?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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