Brentwood Townvs
Dagenham & Redbridge
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dagenham & Redbridge · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brentwood Town 3-1 Dagenham & Redbridge
Original prediction
Dagenham & Redbridge
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.11 | 21.9% | 34.7% | 12.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22.0% | 26.8% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 56.1% | 38.6% | -17.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Dagenham & Redbridge
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Dagenham & Redbridge has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 10 · avg 3.00/2.00
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60