Brentford U21vs
Derby County U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League Cup · 10/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brentford U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brentford U21 4-2 Derby County U21
Original prediction
Brentford U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 53.1% | 50.2% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.22 | 21.5% | 24.1% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.57 | 25.4% | 25.7% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Brentford U21
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Brentford U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
GF 10 · GA 16 · avg 2.00/3.20