Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rudar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brežice 3-4 Rudar
Original prediction
Rudar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.52 | 25.6% | 33.7% | 8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.5% | 27.1% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 48.9% | 39.3% | -9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Rudar
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Rudar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BrežiceLLDLL
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
RudarWLWLW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BrežiceRudar
16.7Attack0.0
0.0Defence33.3
0.0Form0.0
11.2Power15.3
1.47xG1.46