Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Primorje · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brežice 1-1 Primorje
Original prediction
Primorje
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.80 | 31.9% | 34.1% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.0% | 28.2% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 43.1% | 37.7% | -5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.59 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Primorje
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Primorje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BrežiceLLLLD
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PrimorjeDLLDW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BrežicePrimorje
16.7Attack33.3
0.0Defence33.3
0.0Form0.0
11.2Power23.7
1.42xG1.48