Bregalnica Štipvs
Vardar Skopje
COMPLETEDMacedonia · First League · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vardar Skopje · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bregalnica Štip 0-1 Vardar Skopje
Original prediction
Vardar Skopje
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.51 | 16.3% | 16.4% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.3% | 21.4% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.51 | 59.5% | 62.2% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Vardar Skopje
Probability
62.2%
Model confidence
62.2%
Vardar Skopje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80