Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celje · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bravo 2-1 Celje
Original prediction
Celje
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.92 | 23.2% | 30.0% | 6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.5% | 28.2% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 1.70 | 53.3% | 41.8% | -11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Celje
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Celje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BravoDWLDD
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CeljeLWLLD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BravoCelje
38.9Attack50.0
61.1Defence100.0
46.3Form100.0
50.9Power86.5
0.96xG1.13