Bragançavs
Montalegre
COMPLETEDPortugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A · 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bragança · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bragança 0-2 Montalegre
Original prediction
Bragança
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 51.0% | 45.6% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.9% | 28.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.30 | 21.1% | 25.5% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Bragança
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Bragança has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 1 · avg 2.80/0.20
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60