Bragançavs
Celoricense
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bragança · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bragança 6-1 Celoricense
Original prediction
Bragança
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 50.7% | 40.0% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.0% | 27.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.23 | 21.3% | 32.4% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Bragança
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Bragança has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40