Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bradford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Bradford are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Doncaster are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Bradford hold a 21.5-point power-rating edge (81.3 v 59.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.0% in the EFL Trophy, while Bradford holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bradford
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
Bradford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00