Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bradford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Bradford are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Barnsley are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Bradford hold a 33.4-point power-rating edge (81.3 v 47.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 71.9% in the EFL Trophy, while Bradford holds the strongest overall chance at 72% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bradford
Probability
71.9%
Model confidence
71.9%
Bradford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20