Brackley Townvs
AFC Portchester
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brackley Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brackley Town 1-0 AFC Portchester
Original prediction
Brackley Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 70.5% | 42.5% | -27.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.02 | 18.0% | 23.9% | 5.9 pts |
| Away | 7.85 | 11.5% | 33.6% | 22.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Brackley Town
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Brackley Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20