Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bra · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bra 0-0 Derthona
Original prediction
Bra
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 38.7% | 38.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 28.9% | 28.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 32.4% | 32.9% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.08 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Bra
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Bra has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BraWDWLD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
DerthonaDLLDW
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BraDerthona
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.44xG1.23