Bournemouthvs
Sturm Graz
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/15/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bournemouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bournemouth 3-0 Sturm Graz
Original prediction
Bournemouth
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.18 | 81.0% | 53.2% | -27.8 pts |
| Draw | 7.79 | 12.2% | 23.7% | 11.5 pts |
| Away | 14.09 | 6.8% | 23.1% | 16.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Bournemouth
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
53.2%
Bournemouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00