Bournemouthvs
AC Milan
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/22/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bournemouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bournemouth 3-0 AC Milan
Original prediction
Bournemouth
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 47.7% | 46.1% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 25.4% | 26.1% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.52 | 26.9% | 27.8% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Bournemouth
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Bournemouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00