Bourg-en-bresse 01vs
Bastia
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 9/12/2026, 12:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bastia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bourg-en-bresse 01 0-1 Bastia
Original prediction
Bastia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.25 | 28.0% | 32.6% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.6% | 28.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.10 | 43.4% | 38.9% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Bastia
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Bastia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Bourg-en-bresse 01LLLLW
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BastiaLWLWL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Bourg-en-bresse 01Bastia
20.0Attack26.7
33.3Defence46.7
20.0Form40.0
28.9Power41.1
1.06xG1.14