Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Boulogne · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Boulogne 1-0 Nantes, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Boulogne 1-2 Nantes
Original prediction
Boulogne
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.36 | 27.5% | 42.7% | 15.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 29.4% | 28.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 43.2% | 28.9% | -14.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.2 pts
Projected Score
Boulogne 1–0 Nantes
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Boulogne
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Boulogne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BoulogneDDDDL
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
NantesLWDLL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BoulogneNantes
11.1Attack38.9
83.3Defence33.3
27.8Form22.2
44.0Power34.5
1.28xG0.75