Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Boulogne · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Boulogne 1-1 Dijon
Original prediction
Boulogne
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 34.3% | 39.9% | 5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 30.6% | 29.9% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 35.1% | 30.1% | -4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.04 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–015%
- 3.1–114%
Predicted outcome
Boulogne
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Boulogne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BoulogneDDLDD
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
DijonLDLDD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
BoulogneDijon
8.3Attack33.3
83.3Defence50.0
25.0Form16.7
42.1Power36.5
1.17xG0.83