Botev Vratsavs
Spartak Varna
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 10/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Botev Vratsa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Botev Vratsa 0-1 Spartak Varna
Original prediction
Botev Vratsa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 51.2% | 36.2% | -15.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.8% | 29.0% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 4.39 | 21.0% | 34.8% | 13.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Botev Vratsa
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
36.2%
Botev Vratsa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80