Botev Plovdivvs
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/13/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Botev Plovdiv · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Botev Plovdiv 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Original prediction
Botev Plovdiv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 51.9% | 48.0% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.7% | 27.0% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.32 | 21.3% | 24.9% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Botev Plovdiv
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Botev Plovdiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40