Botev Plovdivvs
Levski Sofia
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 8/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Levski Sofia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Botev Plovdiv 1-3 Levski Sofia
Original prediction
Levski Sofia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.73 | 19.5% | 20.4% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.9% | 24.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 1.69 | 54.5% | 55.0% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–112%
- 2.0–212%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Levski Sofia
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
55.0%
Levski Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80