Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Botafogo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Botafogo are 2W-2D-0L in their last 4 (WDWD), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Sao Paulo are 2W-1D-0L in their last 3 (DWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 7 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Botafogo hold a 2.2-point power-rating edge (51.5 v 49.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.5% in the Serie A, while Botafogo holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Botafogo
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Botafogo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/1.00
GF 3 · GA 0 · avg 1.00/0.00