Serie ASerie A
Thursday, 16 July 2026Last updated 10:01
Botafogo

Botafogo

Home
W
21
Full time
Santos

Santos

Away
L
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
GoalVio prediction
41% confidence
Botafogo(41%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction correct— Result: Botafogo
Win probability
Botafogo
41%
Draw
27%
Santos
32%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Botafogo
73
Santos
34
Defence
Botafogo
66
Santos
27
Momentum
Botafogo
100
Santos
0
Danger (xG)
Botafogo
1.80
Santos
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Botafogo)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Santos)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Botafogo)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Santos)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
BotafogoBotafogo
W
SantosSantos
LLW

Probability breakdown

41% confidence
Botafogo41%
Draw27%
Santos32%

Botafogo leads with 41% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Botafogo head into this in Serie A fixture at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos in mixed form (W), while Santos arrive in mixed form (L). Botafogo have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Santos over 1 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Botafogo's strong attack (73/100) faces a vulnerable Santos defence (27/100), while Santos's attack is up against a solid Botafogo backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Botafogo's favour.

Botafogo have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game at home. Santos have won 1 of their last 2 away fixtures, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

Botafogo have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 3.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Botafogo to win with 41% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Botafogo 4121%, Draw 2650%, Santos 3229%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Botafogo 1Draws 00 Santos
Avg goals: 3.0BTTS in 1/1
16 Jul 2026
Botafogo
W21
Santos

Recent form

Botafogo

Botafogo

W
vs Santos
16 Jul 2026
21
Santos

Santos

L
@ Botafogo
16 Jul 2026
12
L
vs Coritiba
17 May 2026
03
W
@ Coritiba
13 May 2026
20

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Botafogo vs Santos?

GoalVio's model predicts Botafogo to win with 41% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Santos?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Santos?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Botafogo vs Santos?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more