Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Botafogo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Botafogo are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Cruzeiro are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 51.5 against 51.3. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.3% in the Serie A, while Botafogo holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Botafogo
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
12.3%
Botafogo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 10 · avg 2.80/2.00
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60