Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Botafogo · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Botafogo are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Cienciano are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Botafogo hold a 33.6-point power-rating edge (82.2 v 48.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 15.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Botafogo holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Botafogo
Probability
60.5%
Model confidence
15.7%
Botafogo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00