Botafogo SPvs
Vila Nova
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 10/3/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vila Nova · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Botafogo SP 0-0 Vila Nova, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Botafogo SP 0-1 Vila Nova
Original prediction
Vila Nova
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 38.2% | 30.0% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 31.0% | 29.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.01 | 30.8% | 40.4% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Projected Score
Botafogo SP 0–0 Vila Nova
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Vila Nova
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Vila Nova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Botafogo SPWDLLL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Vila NovaWWDWL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Botafogo SPVila Nova
37.8Attack47.8
60.0Defence65.6
38.9Form60.0
47.2Power58.7
0.81xG1.09