Botafogo SPvs
Ponte Preta
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 9/29/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Botafogo SP · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Botafogo SP 1-0 Ponte Preta, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Botafogo SP 2-0 Ponte Preta
Original prediction
Botafogo SP
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 75.1% | 71.6% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.52 | 16.9% | 19.3% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 11.62 | 8.0% | 9.1% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Projected Score
Botafogo SP 1–0 Ponte Preta
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Botafogo SP
Probability
71.6%
Model confidence
71.6%
Botafogo SP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Botafogo SPDLLLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Ponte PretaWLLLL
GF 1 · GA 12 · avg 0.20/2.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Botafogo SPPonte Preta
36.8Attack19.5
58.6Defence28.7
36.8Form14.9
45.8Power24.7
1.78xG0.51