Botafogo SPvs
Novorizontino
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 9/9/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Novorizontino · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Botafogo SP 0-1 Novorizontino, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Botafogo SP 1-3 Novorizontino
Original prediction
Novorizontino
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.31 | 28.0% | 22.8% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.8% | 28.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 42.1% | 48.5% | 6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.4 pts
Projected Score
Botafogo SP 0–1 Novorizontino
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Novorizontino
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
Novorizontino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Botafogo SPLLLDW
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NovorizontinoWWWWD
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Botafogo SPNovorizontino
37.2Attack56.4
62.8Defence70.5
39.7Form59.0
48.2Power62.1
0.68xG1.20