Botafogo PBvs
Santa Cruz
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie C · 10/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Botafogo PB 0-0 Santa Cruz, with an exact score probability of 30%.
Prediction record
Final result
Botafogo PB 1-0 Santa Cruz
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.7% | 34.0% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.3% | 34.6% | 5.3 pts |
| Away | 3.35 | 27.0% | 31.5% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Projected Score
Botafogo PB 0–0 Santa Cruz
Exact score probability: 30%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.6%
Model confidence
34.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Botafogo PBDDLLL
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.20/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
Santa CruzDDWWW
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
Botafogo PBSanta Cruz
40.3Attack34.7
66.7Defence76.4
48.6Form55.6
53.4Power58.0
0.60xG0.64