Boston Unitedvs
Southampton U21
COMPLETEDEngland · National League Cup · 10/13/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Boston United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Boston United 5-6 Southampton U21
Original prediction
Boston United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 36.8% | 37.8% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 23.8% | 27.5% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 39.4% | 34.6% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Boston United
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Boston United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80