Boston Unitedvs
Scunthorpe
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Boston United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Boston United 1-3 Scunthorpe
Original prediction
Boston United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 41.3% | 39.8% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.0% | 26.9% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 32.8% | 33.4% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Boston United
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Boston United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 16 · avg 1.40/3.20
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80