Boston Unitedvs
AFC Hornchurch
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 8/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Boston United · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Boston United 2-3 AFC Hornchurch
Original prediction
Boston United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 46.6% | 38.9% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.2% | 27.6% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.50 | 26.2% | 33.6% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Boston United
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Boston United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00