Borussia Mönchengladbachvs
FSV Mainz 05
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/19/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FSV Mainz 05 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05
Original prediction
FSV Mainz 05
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.96 | 32.0% | 27.3% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 25.3% | 24.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.21 | 42.7% | 48.5% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
FSV Mainz 05
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
FSV Mainz 05 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60
GF 17 · GA 4 · avg 3.40/0.80