Borussia Mönchengladbachvs
1899 Hoffenheim
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/18/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1899 Hoffenheim · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (8%), 1-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 1899 Hoffenheim
Original prediction
1899 Hoffenheim
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.05 | 31.0% | 35.6% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 23.9% | 22.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.10 | 45.1% | 41.8% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–28%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
1899 Hoffenheim
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
1899 Hoffenheim has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40