Borussia Dortmundvs
Werder Bremen
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/9/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Borussia Dortmund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen
Original prediction
Borussia Dortmund
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 70.5% | 59.7% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.57 | 17.2% | 20.7% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 7.75 | 12.3% | 19.7% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.57 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Borussia Dortmund
Probability
59.7%
Model confidence
59.7%
Borussia Dortmund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80
GF 8 · GA 15 · avg 1.60/3.00