Borussia Dortmundvs
Villarreal
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 9/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Borussia Dortmund · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Villarreal, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal
Original prediction
Borussia Dortmund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 52.6% | 69.3% | 16.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 23.7% | 18.5% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 4.00 | 23.7% | 12.2% | -11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.8 pts
Projected Score
Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Villarreal
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Borussia Dortmund
Probability
69.3%
Model confidence
69.3%
Borussia Dortmund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80